War, War, and More War: Istanbul Talks Prove that Russia Can't and Won't Stop

The war’s true goal is all of Ukraine, in its entirety, physically controlled

What do you call a situation when a party comes into a room and makes demands that it knows will never be fulfilled?

A calculus, and this is exactly what happened today in Istanbul, where the Ukrainian and Russian delegations met for the first time since 2022.

P.S. Support my work, fellows, all that I do, I effectively do on my own, and it ain’t easy

This meeting took place for an obvious reason: The U.S. has failed in its negotiations with the Russians. There’s no ceasefire—in the air, on the ground, or anywhere at all. Nothing has changed on the battlefield despite the fog of meetings, grand claims, and televised scandals.

And so the headache was masterfully passed to the Ukrainian delegation: You wanted to participate directly? Well, please, it’s your time to shine because we’re done.

Only there’s no room for any shining, as the talks in Istanbul proved what many knew: Russia simply cannot stop the war. And no peace deal — even in its ugliest shape or form — will be able to put an end to it.

Because this war needs to continue.

“We don’t want war, but we’re ready to fight for a year, two, three—however long it takes. We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?” uttered Vladimir Medinsky, the head of the delegation, who, like his chief, is known for his sci-fi interpretations of history.

For once, I advise that you take this statement seriously and at its face value because the way Russia behaved in Türkiye shows that the war of attrition is not only not bothering the Kremlin or the apathetic Russian society, but it appears to be a necessity.

You do not come to negotiations to demand that the party that’s defending rather successfully and even recaptured some land would just give you the oblasts that you can’t conquer physically. But that’s exactly what Russia did, demanding that Ukraine withdraw its troops from Kherson, Zaporizhya, Donetsk, and Luhansk Oblasts. It’s nonsense.

Now, it’s easy to claim that Russia is simply foolish, insane, or whatever adjective you wish to choose in such a situation to describe this conduct. But I doubt that it’s any of this.

It’s a calculus, which proves the thesis I’ve been telling on a merry-go-round all these months: Russia wants this war to continue and doesn’t need any ceasefires to “re-arm” or “take a break,” as propagated by, I’m sorry to say, not so bright, yet very aggressive, commentators.

What’s more, it appears that the war of attrition is the preferred one and not an unfortunate circumstance that leads to “unsustainable losses.” Even more so since the words “unsustainable losses” don’t exist in a country where the concept of life’s sacred value is non-existent.

Why it wants to continue in this mode is becoming increasingly clear: It’s unsustainable for Ukraine, and it creates the environment of “eternal war”, which has very clear-cut benefits.

You may not be a big fan of Alexey Navalny, but it is also unquestionable that the now deceased man was the only real opposition to Putin’s regime, and, stemming from my exclusive interview with his close accomplice Alexey Yakovlev, which will be published soon, it appears that the support for him even outside of Moscow in ural Russia was quite high.

Perhaps, he did stand some chance after all. But now he’s gone.

In fact, everyone’s gone. Look around: Putin managed to suppress all of the dissent, which was at least somewhat present at the beginning of the full-scale war. Even Wagner’s chief, Evgeny Prigozhin, who effectively opposed the war of attrition and wanted true action, was killed.

Meanwhile, the Russian society has become so homogenized and radicalized that the war has turned into the norm. A fresh paradigm in a deteriorating society, if you will. The longer it continues, the better. And if it stops, even for a short period of time, this would be problematic. This would sow dissatisfaction and allow people to doubt the results, which, let’s be honest, aren’t impressive. Neither Mariupol nor Melitopol matters, no matter how hard the Russian propaganda spins it.

The war’s true goal is all of Ukraine, in its entirety, physically controlled.

The question, as usual, is how do we go forward? And the answer is clear: the only way to put an end to this war, or at least freeze it, is to deprive Russia of the ability to wage this war of attrition. This isn’t about sanctions only, as they’re not an effective tool, though still welcome.

It’s about stabilizing the frontline to such an extent that it literally stops moving. It’s about weapons and, yes, people.

Forget about recapturing the territory, focus on stalling the offensive, no matter how slow, but still ongoing. It’s a basic rule of war, and sexist as it sounds, I’m not sure that a girl like me should be explaining this to you.

P.S. Support my work, fellows, all that I do, I effectively do on my own, and it ain’t easy