Ukraine Just Downed Russian Jet Fighter with Drone and Yes, It Matters More Than You Think

If Ukraine puts an end to war of attrition, we're in a totally new terrain, ladies and gentlemen

Christmas came so early this year that it almost coincided with the yearly Russian freak show, also known as the 9 May Parade. And in the true spirit of festivities, Ukraine gave Russia a present. One-of-a-kind — or better still, first-of-a-kind: it downed its multirole fighter from Russia’s 43rd Naval Aviation Regiment in the Black Sea using little things that fly in the air. You know, drones.

Ouch-ouch-ouch.

That, expectedly, didn’t go down well with the Russian “war commentators” who were shocked to find out just how advanced the Ukrainian game of drones has become. And it has, despite Moscow trying to replicate it and bringing in ladies from Botswana to assemble Iranian drones in Russia.

I won’t get into all the nuts and bolts of Ukraine’s burgeoning drone industry, but I’ll tell you this: in August 2023, I met with one of the Westerners working for a Ukrainian drone startup. He told me that the investment rounds were “sick” in terms of amount, adding that the development is happening at lightning speed.

“But hey, one downed jet fighter, even if it protects the illegal Crimean bridge, is just that,” the sceptical lot will point out after reading this — and rightly so.

But if you group different occasions, like the sunken Moskva warship, oil and ammo depots going up in flames all the time, and China asking Ukraine not to attack Moscow on the 9 May Parade (which didn’t seem to convince Serbian President Alexander Vucic or Slovak PM Robert Fico, who suddenly “fell ill”), then this Su-30sm debacle becomes important.

Because it indicates that Ukraine is trying to put an end to the war of attrition in which it cannot and will not prevail, at least not in the sense of full victory. In this mode, Russia will always be one step ahead simply because it’s bigger, has more funds, and better allies like North Korea that supply it with cannon fodder.

Like Ukraine, it won’t win, as none of its true goals—like incorporating Ukraine into Russia—will be attained, but it’ll get to keep its conquests simply because Ukraine doesn’t have the capacity to liberate them.

I see no merit in Ukraine continuing the fight in such a mode and would definitely prefer a ceasefire. But it’s impossible because it’s a boon to the weaker party, not the stronger one, which is why the Kremlin is unwilling to do it.

Trump and Co. have also come to understand that despite their genuine efforts to stop the war that they dislike for many reasons, including, yes, purely humanitarian ones, as the death toll for both Ukraine and Russia isn’t looking cool at all, it’s not happening. Hence, the sudden solid minerals deal, the announcement of military aid, the apparent preparation of new sanctions, and the effective end of the negotiation charade.

But if we manage to break the attrition pattern…

now that’s a whole new story, ladies and gentlemen, and non-binaries too. Then the war not only makes sense but becomes a very sound undertaking with an attainable goal.

For that, however, we need two things.

One, for everyone to shut their goddamn mouths and stop informing the public on YouTube on which concrete steps Ukraine should and will take. That is just beyond stupid.

Two, hoard the weapons, our own and donated, without wasting them on public stunts like the Kursk Operation, even if they’re necessary for morale. Or on the doomed-to-fail counteroffensives, like the one in 2023, of which the startup guy I met in August 2023 was very critical, calling it “an unnecessary meatgrinder” already back then. Hard to disagree.

But above all, Ukraine needs to understand that war is war. So if you down a Su-30sm, like Ukraine did, and the pilots end up at sea, with a civilian vessel knowingly helping them, you kill them. Both. Mercilessly.