No, Russia isn't winning in Ukraine

Losing more AVs and tanks in Pokrovsk than in Stalingrad..that's a victory?

You call this a Russian victory?

When it comes to military strategy, I might not be your go-to source. But not so much when it comes to getting a good dose of common sense, — which is not very common. Or so the mantra goes.

Over the past 2,5 years, I’ve heard many people comment on Russia’s war against Ukraine. Different generals and figures spread different ideas as to what’s going on on the battlefield.

From sensationalist “Crimean siege has begun” to all types of doom and gloom scenarios and outright stupid things like that by Douglas McGregor who “predicted” Ukraine’s collapse several days before the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated the city of Kherson in November 2022.

It’s not in my nature to make big unfounded statements but there’s one thing that I can tell you in good faith: Russia isn’t winning this war.

And the reason for that is very simple: the concept of victory can only be measured against the overarching goal of one’s endeavor. The overarching goal of Russia’s war is, and will always remain, to capture Kyiv.

Because if Kyiv falls, so will the rest of Ukraine. Evidence of that would include Russian tanks driving down the central street of Kyiv Khreshatyk and the Russian flag unfurling on the Maidan Square.

This and only this outcome would be a victory for Putin personally and Russia at large. There’s absolutely zero room for discussion here.

But that scenario of Russian tanks driving down the Khreshatyk street was buried back in 2022 when Russia’s blitzkrieg failed due to the general unpreparedness of the Russian army and the high resistance of the Ukrainian army and society at large.

Blitzkriegs can only be effective once so it’s safe to say that that outcome is off the table. And with it, the Russian victory in Ukraine.

That leaves us in a situation where Russia, a prevailing military force due to sheer numbers and loyal allies who quickly supply it with what it needs, is trying to gain some sort of tactical territorial footing in Ukraine.

And just look at how it’s going. Throughout the years, most of its gains focused on occupying villages in eastern Ukraine and razing small cities to the ground. It lost the only regional capital it managed to capture in 2022, Kherson, alongside most of Kharkiv Oblast.

The only two cities of some significance from a historical and economic point of view that Russia clinched are Mariupol and Melitopol that it occupied in the early days of the full-scale invasion. Is that what you consider a victory?

But perhaps, the most telling situation of them all is what’s happening right now in the Pokrovsk direction.

Now, it is no surprise that Russia has no respect for anyone’s lives, including the lives of their own soldiers. But wasting 150K personnel, more than 580 tanks, over 1200 armoured vehicles on capturing a city the size of Oosterhout (you'll have to google that) and calling it a victory?

Just let it sink in: losing more AVs and tanks in Pokrovsk than during the Stalingrad battle in 1943? And calling it a victory?

You must be out of your mind.

And no, Donald Trump’s looming peace push will not in any way help Russia fix this situation because already now when the ammo advantage is so much in its favor and it has the manpower to finish the job, it cannot complete its own task of fully capturing the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast.

Yes, its losses are gargantuan — but since when do the Russians care about things like that?

The real problem is that despite this enormous upper hand, Russia still isn’t succeeding. Why? Because it lacks brains, a must-have for attaining any goal, especially of military nature.

A potential ceasefire, which I expect to last up 2-3 years as the last time I checked Botox didn’t grant immortality to insatiable KGB clerks, will not become the magic bullet for Russia. A temporary relief, yes, some time to rearm, yes.

But it’s a double-edged sword, should it actually agree to it, and I have yet to hear a solid argument as to why Ukraine wouldn’t be able to use that time to its advantage on business terms rather than asking for aid and assistance. After all, free things can’t be that forever.

Ideally, the Allies would just need to finally stop playing the bizarre games of supplying tanks in the tens and just do what’s necessary — supply everything in bulk — to at least stop the current suffering on the front and preserve lives before we talk about any new major counteroffensive that might take years to prepare and a far better planning not in terms of actual planning but in terms of keeping it secret from everyone involved. Especially the Allies.

But the world isn’t ideal so let’s focus on what perfectness we can get out of imperfection. And I believe there’s a lot.