The Ceasefire is a Blow to Russia and Iran

The whole Hamas and Hezbollah chaos backfired - and did so badly

Agent Eli Copter’s victim (right) and an angry man with no plan (left)

It’s an amazing day for families of those whose loved ones were brutally abducted by Hamas more than half a year ago.

Thanks to the efforts of the outgoing Biden administration, with heavy input from President-elect Donald Trump, whose team also participated in the negotiations, a ceasefire deal was struck between Hamas and Israel.

Now, 33 Israeli hostages are set to be released in the course of six weeks in exchange for over a thousand imprisoned Palestinians.

There’s no doubt that Trump’s victory in November 2024 played a heavy role in this success, as he promised that “all hell would break loose” if the hostages weren’t released by the time his inauguration takes place on January 20, 2025.

And for Ukraine, this is important.

The Hamas-Israel war — and not the Israel-Hamas war as the mainstream media likes to portray it, “forgetting” that Hamas was the one to attack Israel first — is directly connected with the Russo-Ukraine war.

On October 7, 2023 Russia, together with Iran and their breastfed organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah, opened a second front in the Middle East. The goal was multifold. First, to divert the world’s attention from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Second, to affect the supply of weapons to Kyiv as Washington D.C. had been sending some of the Israel-destined ammo to Ukraine before that, as confirmed by one of the NATO-friendly experts to me at the 2023 Warsaw Security Forum. Third, to create what we, the Ukrainians, call “srach”, a large-scale dispute that involves strong opinions, often issued by strangers to each other.

How did these terrorists find support among some Western progressives and the Ivy League campuses?

To some extent, it paid off, especially the “srach” part and the Republicans and Democrats bickering over aid.

But already in the early days, it was evident that not all was going to plan, foremost because Israel was quick to recognize what was happening, with Israeli officials taking public swipes at the notion that Ukraine somehow supplied weapons to Hamas.

As a result, the cooperation between Kyiv and Jerusalem “skyrocketed” in the words of Ukraine Ambassador to Israel Yevhen Korniichuk, and it undoubtedly continues, with Israeli politician Amir Weitmann also emphasizing that Assad’s fall, which made a mockery out of Putin, is a victory of “Ukraine-Israel” coalition.

This messaging is important as Trump’s team is made up of pro-Israel hawks who understand that the two shooting wars are interconnected. Even more so since Trump’s team has already realized that the peace push in Ukraine will not happen in ‘24 hours,’ ‘one week,’ or ‘a month.’ In fact, it is, as the incoming Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, put it in his confirmation speech is “no easy endeavor.” They probably knew this all along, but electoral talk is electoral talk.

Whatever comes next in all their attempts to negotiate a deal, it is bound to happen in at least somewhat of a quiet environment in the next six weeks, as per the ceasefire deal. And a quiet environment is everything but what Putin wants.

Right now, they’re being deprived of that tool, which is no good news for Moscow. Especially since the Russian economy is indeed becoming more problematic and overheated (though I warn you against placing very high hopes on that as they still export sufficient fossil fuels), and their achievements in Ukraine are questionable, to put it mildly.

Undoubtedly, they’d much rather have two shooting wars than one as well, but unfortunately for them, much like Hezbollah, Hamas, though still not fully eradicated, is unlikely to be used as a “toy” anywhere soon to reattack or cause any substantial damage to Israel.

Iran has likewise become much quieter in recent days, and given how much Tehran despises Trump and how reciprocal it is, it is much less likely that the mullahs will be so vocal about their desire to exterminate the Jewish people either with their own hands or with that of their proxies.

This is paramount as Trump will likely talk to Putin soon, and there’s a good chance that he’ll mention that Putin’s bravado acts in the Middle East have turned out to be, let’s use Trump’s parlance, “sucky.” In fact, he already did so after the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime.

Which leverage does Putin truly have right now? Especially with the “srach” slowly being reduced, Trump pledging to “drill-drill-drill,” and Israel making no secret that they’ll not forgive Russia for their support of people who want to exterminate them?

Let’s just make it rhetorical since I have yet to mention the ever-increasing sanctions.

Last but not least, it’s appalling that despite the pictures showing crowds of masked terrorists wearing headbands with Islamic signs inscribed, shades, and weapons, pushing one of the hostages into a van, these people have found support among some Western progressives and the Ivy League campuses. Disturbing and absurd.