Is this Why Spain, Belgium, and Slovenia Don't Want Ukraine in NATO?

Looks like there's a clue that could solve Politico Europe's puzzle

In October 2024, Politico Europe published a report on who opposes Ukraine’s NATO membership. I wouldn’t say that it smacked of originality. All the long-standing opposers of Ukraine’s NATO membership, including the U.S. Germany are well-known. Alongside Hungary and Slovakia that just can’t get enough of Russian gas.

But that doesn’t hold for some countries in that list. Like Spain, Slovenia, and Belgium, states that never really expressed any strong reservations about the matter.

So that got me thinking what’s the deal here, especially since none of them were ever brought up in any of my private conversations with any officials, NATO included.

Enter the NATO defence expenditure graph that I came across recently. It shows the spending dynamic of the 32 NATO member states between 2014-2024. And I immediately noticed something that served as a potential reason why these states oppose Ukraine’s NATO membership without a very explicit reason.

Source: NATO

But before I get to that, let’s take a look at where Europe is in terms of expenditure.

Poland is spending the most percentage of its GDP on defense, i.e. 4,12% closely followed by Estonia, the U.S., Latvia, and Greece that are all above 3%.

Countries likes Lithuania, Finland, Denmark, the United Kingdom, and Romania are likewise doing a good job, spending more than 2,3% of its GDP.

Others are either close to taking their defense spending seriously or are simply doing the bare minimum while seven European NATO member states like Italy and Portugal are still spending below the 2% benchmark.

Three realistic conclusions can be drawn from the chart above:

1. Europe is not at all taking its defense seriously

To read this graph properly, you also need to factor in the size of EU economies.

Source: World Economic Forum

So, before you go all yay, saying that most countries are (at last) hitting the 2% benchmark, think about this: 3 countries out of the top-10 EU economies with the largest GDPs aren’t doing that all. Meanwhile, the two powerhouses — Germany and France — are doing the bare minimum.

Because Estonia’s contribution cannot be in any way compared to that of Italy. Indeed, Italy is probably contributing more money-wise, but not in proportion to its economy. So Estonia is certainly doing a better job but its contribution cannot make the difference you want it to make.

2. Powerhouses like Italy, Belgium, Spain aren’t convinced by Russia posing a threat to Europe

   None of these countries have hit the 2% benchmark even in times of full-scale Russo-Ukraine war and against Trump’s warnings. It’s unfathomable what other convincing they need but it’s so.

3. Canada isn’t at all ready to step in

There’s a lot of talk about Canada becoming part of the so-called coalition of the willing, a group of countries, led by Poland, that would help Ukraine stay afloat militarily if Trump decides to dramatically cut NATO expenses.

Canada’s GDP is $2.14 trillion. An increase even to 2% would make a substantial difference but nothing suggests it is ready to do anything about it, let alone substitute the U.S.’s contribution given that the latter’s GDP is $27,36 trillion.

It’s all about the money, all 'bout the dum dum

By now, and if you’re attentive enough, you would have noticed a certain detail in that graph.

If not, it’s this: Spain, Slovenia, and Belgium — the three countries that oppose Ukraine NATO membership — are also…

in the four countries that contribute the least to NATO, with Spain serving as an anti-hero.

Could this be the reason why they ended up in Politico Europe’s list?

Though I don’t have strong evidence to prove it, my experience tells me that the likelihood of such a coincidence is slim. Especially where money is involved.

Do they fear that Ukraine’s membership would require them to spend more?

Is it generally the desire to keep the status quo?

Are they waiting for the “Ukraine problem” to simply be resolved?

Are some other political factors at play too?

If so, what makes Spain different compared to similar societal contexts, chiefly the repercussions of the eurozone’s meltdown and strong leftist influences, like that of Italy and Portugal?

Whatever it is, one thing is certain: years of Trump’s warnings have fallen on deaf European ears and the Russo-Ukraine war hasn’t been able to fully change that.

And that is, quite frankly, discouraging as the real defense spending benchmark today isn’t 2%. It’s much-much-much higher.